Ministerial Comebacks. Explaining Reselection and Promotion of Cabinet Members in Italy

Abstract

Three cabinets (Conte I, Conte II, and Draghi) entered office during the 18th legislative term in Italy. In spite of the significant ideological differences between them, no full alternation of parties in government occurred. The largest party in parliament – the Five Star Movement – participated in all three cabinets, while the League and the Democratic Party took part in two of them (the League in the Conte I and Draghi, the Democratic Party in the Conte II and Draghi); other minor parties entered the Conte II and Draghi as well. Did party continuity lead to ministerial stability? This article puts the 18th legislative term in perspective, through a longitudinal comparison of all Italian partisan cabinets from 1994 to 2022 (15 cabinets). In particular, it aims to account for continuity and changes within the Italian ministerial elite across different cabinets, also controlling for the gendered aspect of cabinet reselections and promotions. It answers the following questions. What makes ministerial reselection likely? Do political and personal background count in being reappointed and promoted? Based on original data, the analysis shows that remarkable previous political experience, age, and time matter. In contrast, the type of portfolio held in cabinet and gender do not have a significant impact. In this context, the 18th legislative term appears in line with the general pattern, but it distances itself from other terms defined by party continuity across multiple cabinets. The article contributes to the debates about personnel turnover, representation, and policy-makers’ stability in democratic cabinets.